http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/08/AR2007080802112.html?hpid=topnews

The inevitable consequence of the primary campaign frenzy beginning so early this season is that the primaries themselves will get pushed earlier and earlier. The incentives to do so are at least twofold: 1) A state with an earlier primary receives more prestige from press coverage and the all-important appearance of being "relevant;" the states attempt to prove their significance on the national political scene by simple changes on the calendar, thus proving how arbitrary any such importance is. 2) All sorts of money gets dumped in to a key state's economy (i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire) during primary season: TV ads, paid staff, increased restaurant revenue, etc. So now, South Carolina is telling us that it is so fucking important that it will hold its primary on January 19th, and this was brought about by Florida trying to push its primary ahead of South Carolina's by 4 days; the Post says this is part of the competition to be "First in the South." First in the South?
So, there are obvious ramifications for the New Hampshire primary (first in the nation, assholes), which had a tentative date of January 22nd. Frankly, guys, New Hampshire just doesn't give a fuck. Last election the primary was on the 27th and in 2000, February 1st. In fact, the state law is that the primary must always be first in the country. (Here's an interesting thought: what if South Carolina or Florida passed such a law? Neat!). Universally beloved Secretary of State Bill Gardner has promised not to make a decision until fall, probably, but we know it will be January 12th or earlier.
This is stupid.
Another inevitable consequence of the earlier and earlier frenzy of primary bullcrap is voter apathy. This Gallup Poll shows that the percent of democrats "extremely likely" to vote in their primary went down 6 points from July, and the percent "not likely" to vote at all increased by 2. This is a small sample, and not a very big shift, but it's early still. We still have at least four more months (god willing) and 67 debates/forums and 93,642 TV commercials and 890 mailings and 133canvassers until the first primary actually happens; then, it will presumably all be decided on February 5th, when 1433 delegates (democratic primary) and like a million states vote. So then, that's only about 6 months until the convention (which will most likely not be decisive), and then another 3 months until the actual election. As WMUR painfully reminds us, there are still 453 days until the actual election. 453 DAYS!

My guess is we have about 500 days until the 2012 Iowa Caucus.


Deep breaths...