Ha.

Neat.


"In a fast-paced day of striking contrasts, Mr. Obama showed new confidence as he soaked up the roar of his crowds, drawing an audience the campaign estimated at 18,000 people to a convention center here...

Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, replaced Patti Solis Doyle, who led her campaign since it began last year and whom she regarded almost as an adopted daughter...

But Maine is a caucus state, and Mr. Obama has won almost all caucuses, which depend on deep organization and a passionate following...

On top of it all, Mr. Obama beat out Bill Clinton for a Grammy, winning the spoken word award for the audio-book version of his memoir, “The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream."

Cool.

And listen to Jail Cell

Okay so Hillary has won Florida, which is apparently the Potemkin Village of campaign victories, so who gives a shit? Well, when no one else fucking cares, you can count on the Granite State to come through:

"Courting voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, last August Sen. Hillary Clinton signed a pledge not to "campaign or participate" in the Michigan or Florida Democratic primaries. She participated in both primaries and is campaigning in Florida. Which proves, again, that Hillary Clinton is a liar...

...Clinton coldly and knowingly lied to New Hampshire and Iowa. Her promise was not a vague statement. It was a signed pledge with a clear and unequivocal meaning...

...New Hampshire voters, you were played for suckers."

So says the Union Leader, New Hampshire's worst newspaper, tied with all the others. Hey Union Leader, I hate her too, but Hillary only came to the state the day of (or maybe the day before not sure) the primary so what kind of difference did it make? She's had a cozy lead in all but one of the polls taken over the last year.

The purpose of Clinton's appearance was to be photographed proximate to several signs with her name on them, and get said photographs on television, which worked.

The DNC is not helping to motivate the American primary voter by stripping delegates from a bunch of states that wanted their primaries to be closer to other artificially relevant states. All this just makes me want to visit one or more of these.

Oh, and regarding this: is this, and this.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/08/AR2007080802112.html?hpid=topnews

The inevitable consequence of the primary campaign frenzy beginning so early this season is that the primaries themselves will get pushed earlier and earlier. The incentives to do so are at least twofold: 1) A state with an earlier primary receives more prestige from press coverage and the all-important appearance of being "relevant;" the states attempt to prove their significance on the national political scene by simple changes on the calendar, thus proving how arbitrary any such importance is. 2) All sorts of money gets dumped in to a key state's economy (i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire) during primary season: TV ads, paid staff, increased restaurant revenue, etc. So now, South Carolina is telling us that it is so fucking important that it will hold its primary on January 19th, and this was brought about by Florida trying to push its primary ahead of South Carolina's by 4 days; the Post says this is part of the competition to be "First in the South." First in the South?
So, there are obvious ramifications for the New Hampshire primary (first in the nation, assholes), which had a tentative date of January 22nd. Frankly, guys, New Hampshire just doesn't give a fuck. Last election the primary was on the 27th and in 2000, February 1st. In fact, the state law is that the primary must always be first in the country. (Here's an interesting thought: what if South Carolina or Florida passed such a law? Neat!). Universally beloved Secretary of State Bill Gardner has promised not to make a decision until fall, probably, but we know it will be January 12th or earlier.
This is stupid.
Another inevitable consequence of the earlier and earlier frenzy of primary bullcrap is voter apathy. This Gallup Poll shows that the percent of democrats "extremely likely" to vote in their primary went down 6 points from July, and the percent "not likely" to vote at all increased by 2. This is a small sample, and not a very big shift, but it's early still. We still have at least four more months (god willing) and 67 debates/forums and 93,642 TV commercials and 890 mailings and 133canvassers until the first primary actually happens; then, it will presumably all be decided on February 5th, when 1433 delegates (democratic primary) and like a million states vote. So then, that's only about 6 months until the convention (which will most likely not be decisive), and then another 3 months until the actual election. As WMUR painfully reminds us, there are still 453 days until the actual election. 453 DAYS!

My guess is we have about 500 days until the 2012 Iowa Caucus.


Deep breaths...

My trip to the Giuliani headquarters with Taylor was unsuccessful, yet eventful. The passenger van and two Escalades out front were indicative of something unusual afoot. We entered and spoke to two sharply dressed, confused twenty-somethings who informed us that the Mayor himself was in a meeting and about to head to a speech, and that there would be no one in the office to respond to our suspicious inquiries. Being a shaggy-haired college student in a Republican campaign office is like the first day of middle school; everyone looks at you funny and nobody wants to be friends. It seemed to me that our friends in the Grand Old Party were a bit distrustful of our stated intentions, and may have been more accommodating had we donned well-pressed suits with pin stripes. Feeling despondent and dejected, we decided to wait outside in what was quickly becoming a sadistically humid and sweltering day, hoping to at least get a photo with the candidate to serve as defense of our unique situation. Rudy was running about an hour late apparently, and we were going to have to be quick. Apparent big wigs with good grooming, beaming, sauntered past us after confused and awkward glances, and then Mr. Giuliani himself. “Mr. Mayor,” I pleaded, “could we get a couple pictures real quick?” Unenthused, he complied while his aides reminded us what super big hurry this super important gentleman was in. The photos were snapped without incident, and that concluded my visit with Rudy Giuliani.

http://www.firstinthenationproject.org/students.html

I went to a Subway sandwich shop today to get a Subway sandwich; inside, on the wall, to the right of the cash register was a framed certificate stating that the location won the award for cleanliness in 1995. Upon reading this, I carefully calculated how many years it has been since 1995. Satisfied, I ordered my sandwich.




Today in class ( a summer class about the presidency and the primaries and other such business) we were looking at some polls some dude (dr. dude) had done. I don't understand why the polls on primary candidates for president are including people like Chuck Hagel, George Pataki, Wesley Clark, and Als Gore and Sharpton. Their respective non-candidacies and non-campaigns make their inclusion in these and other polls somewhat puzzling. Is it just because they haven't ruled it out? I don't get it. Wayne Brady hasn't dismissed a 2008 bid. Political polling is supposed to be scientific and as precise as possible. Hey people-who-do-polling, why not only ask people if they're going to vote for who's running for president? It would be a big help.

I did this up for a class tonight. Maybe something on clouds tomorrow.

Ry Amidon

Write-Up on Abortion, Three Candidates

June 12, 2007

Abortion

The issue of abortion rights has been a prominent and contentious issue in American politics for decades and its controversy does not seem likely to fade from the spotlight in 2008. The question of abortion is a major aspect of presidential politics because, beyond limitations such as “partial-birth” bans, consent laws, and waiting periods it is entirely a federal matter; Roe v. Wade (410 U.S. 113), decided in 1973 under the Burger court, mandated that the right to of a woman to have an abortion was protected under the Fourteenth Amendment[i] and struck down all state laws prohibiting abortion. The democratic candidates are fairly unified on this issue, and are all pro-choice; little attention need be paid. Republicans take differing positions on the matter, with some opposing abortion procedures with certain exceptions, including at least one pro-choicer. Some, such as Arizona Senator John McCain write overtly of “overturning” the 1973 Supreme Court decision[ii]. Any president’s ability to “overturn” is limited to indirect methods, due to the separation of the three branches of government; all he/she could do is hope for a more liberal justice of the High Court to peace out or keel over to allow for the appointment of an adjudicator who will adjudicate in favor of abortion restrictions. Stevens, a moderate-to-liberal Ford appointee (long may he live) looks like a good candidate. The replacement of a moderate or liberal judge with a conservative one would tip the ideological balance of the Court safely to the conservatives:

A List of the Pretty Conservative Supreme Court Justices[iii]:

-Alito

-Thomas

-Roberts

-Scalia

Moderates:

-Kennedy

-Souter

Liberals:

-Bader-Ginsburg

-Stevens

-Breyer

So, if a judge such as Stevens were replaced by another Thomas or Alito, the conservatives would have a solid 5, the majority needed to decide a case. Presidential candidates (and possibly the voting public, too) are very aware of this scenario and most make clear their stance on abortion, though some have records that indicate a change of mind. Here is what the deal is.

Kansas Senator Sam Brownback is pro-life, the pure, simple, and old-fashioned way. As president, he says he would protect life at every stage. This war-enthusiast says he hopes that “one day America will remember the value we once placed on human life”[iv]. Maybe one day, Senator.

Former governor of Virginia Jim Gilmore is opposed to abortion, and did everything in his power to restrict in during his tenure there including: a waiting period, parental notification, and “partial-birth” ban[v]. Interestingly enough, the state’s motto, “Sic semper tyrannis” is what John Wilkes Booth said after he killed our 16th president.

Former American Hero—errr- New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is in favor of “reasonable restrictions[vi]” on abortion, which in the English language means he believes there is a right to abortion, but would like to see fewer of them; he does not want Roe overturned but will ecstatically support parental notification and the usual ban on “partial birth” business.

Former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee opposes abortion rights[vii]. Yawn. His state’s motto is “Regnat populus.” It means the people rule, and was instituted during the Civil War.

California Congressman Duncan Hunter is not afraid to get specific about his opposition to abortion rights. He would support a Right to Life amendment to the Constitution. He has proudly cosponsored many pieces of legislation limiting abortion and other fetus-related acts. He also opposes “Fetus Farming,” and having government funded abortions for soldiers or their dependents overseas[viii]. Neat.

Arizona Senator John McCain, as mentioned above would like to overturn Roe v Wade. He says he will nominate judges who won’t confuse their judicial rule with a legislative one, and that it the government should make it easier for a woman to give birth to an unwanted child “by strengthening faith-based, community, and neighborhood organizations that provide critical services to pregnant mothers in need.[ix]” He would also promote the practice of adoption.

A US Representative of Texas, Ron Paul, says that Roe was “wrongly decided” and that the matter should be left up to the states. Ron is also for banning “partial birth” abortions[x].

Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo also believes Roe v Wade was “wrongly decided,” and sees it as a state issue. Also, Tom thinks we need education on “the potential life-long medical problems and emotional scarring associated with abortions[xi]”. (That's a good idea, Tom we should do the same thing for people who want to enlist in the military!)

Former Wisconsin Governor and Health and Human Services Secretary Thomas “Tommy” Thompson says that he is pro-life, and touts having signed one of the first bans on “partial birth” abortion; he promises to appoint “strict constructionist” judges to the bench[xii].

Actor/Former Tennessee Senator/Red-Truck Leaser Fred Thompson has only just kicked off his run for office. His stance on the abortion issue is kind of unclear right now and remains to see what his officially stated position will be. In the past he has supported Roe and characterized abortion as a personal decision with which the government has no right to interfere[xiii]. His website is called I’m With Fred!

Former Massachusetts Governor with “shoulders you could land a 737 on[xiv]” Mitt Romney states on his website that he is pro-life with the exception of cases of rape, incest, and a threat to the life of the mother[xv]. However, in a 1994 senate campaign he claimed to support abortion rights[xvi].

The abortion rights issue is a crucial one for republican candidates because it can help determine two important factors: the percentage of the moderate vote that they get, the percentage of the coveted conservative Christian vote that they get. A more pro-choice opinion would probably increase the former while a strict pro-life stance would attract conservatives.

Romney, Tancredo, Dodd

Mitt Romney (R), a Mormon, was elected Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in 2002, and after serving a term decided that he would rather be president of the United States. Romney has an MBA and a JD from Harvard and was a participant in well-paying business ventures in the eighties and nineties before becoming President and CEO of the organizing committee for the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, claiming to have erased a multi-million dollar deficit[xvii]. The governor’s biggest problem in this election may be his changes of opinion on some key social issues. He claims to be pro-life, but ran as a pro-choicer in a 1994 senate race; Romney also says he is against same sex marriages and civil unions, despite having supported such a law in his own state as governor[xviii]. Motives aside, it is clear that the former governor of a very liberal state has moved farther to the right on some controversial social issues, and explaining these switches clearly may pose a challenge to his campaign. He is in third place in CNN polls in Iowa[xix] and New Hampshire[xx].

Chris Dodd (D)is a senator from Connecticut who has been a member of Congress since 1975[xxi]. Like the other democratic senators running for president who were serving at the time, Dodd voted to authorize the Iraq War in 2002[xxii]. That has turned out to be kind of unpopular with a lot of people, and if the Senator wishes to gain the confidence of voting liberals his campaign will have to do what Edwards, Clinton, and Biden also must do which is succinctly defend or excuse the vote and lay out a comprehensible plan for the future.

Tom Tancredo (R), a US Representative from Colorado is a fairly conservative type whose biggest issue is immigration. “As President, I will secure our borders so illegal aliens do not come, and I will eliminate benefits and job prospects so they do not stay,” says Tancredo[xxiii]. He holds conservative positions on most major issues and is currently polling at about 2 percent according to CNN[xxiv].

---

[i] http://www.oyez.org/cases/1970-1979/1971/1971_70_18/ [All sites accessed June 11, 2007]

[ii] http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/95b18512-d5b6-456e-90a2-12028d71df58.htm

[iii] These categorizations are my own estimates, and not based on any sort of verifiable fact.

[iv] http://www.brownback.com/s/Issues/tabid/60/Default.aspx#Life

[v] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/jim.gilmore.html

[vi] http://www.joinrudy2008.com/index.php?section=2

[vii] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/mike.huckabee.html

[viii] http://www.gohunter08.com/inner.asp?z=4

[ix] http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/95b18512-d5b6-456e-90a2-12028d71df58.htm

[x] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/ron.paul.html

[xi] http://www.teamtancredo.com/tancredo_issues_index.asp

[xii] http://www.tommy2008.com/On_The_Issues.aspx

[xiii] http://www.nationalreview.com/daily/nr070600.html

[xiv] http://mediamatters.org/items/200706060004

[xv] http://www.mittromney.com/Issue-Watch/Values

[xvi] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/mitt.romney.html

[xvii] http://www.mittromney.com/Learn-About-Mitt/Mittxs_Biography

[xviii] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/mitt.romney.html

[xix] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/iowa.html

[xx] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html

[xxi] http://www.chrisdodd.com/about

[xxii] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/chris.dodd.html

[xxiii] http://www.teamtancredo.com/tancredo_issues_index.asp

[xxiv] http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/tom.tancredo.html

Mark Warner on the right.

Alex Lee, the smiling man from this post.
This fake laugh is brought to you by Mark Warner and WMUR's Scott Spradling

Afternoon with a governor, and some other candidates.